Envol

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Energy Consulting

Financial
modelling

Financial modeling needs to incorporate the specifics of regulation

Classical analysis through financial modeling is essential in the power sector. However, the specifics of regulation can pose challenges in the modeling process and adoption of assumptions. A slight misunderstanding or overly aggressive assumption can severely impact cash flow and expected returns.

Another relevant characteristic of the power sector is the leverage ratio of projects and consequently how debt is modeled. Care must be taken to ensure modeling errors or misunderstandings of the debt structure do not lead to poor investment decisions.

It is also important to consider the macroeconomic context and how it can impact expected discount rates by investors or asset valuation timing, vis-Ă -vis market practices for the type of asset and segment under analysis.

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The Envol team has already participated in projects involving the modeling of generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization assets, totaling operations exceeding BRL 70 billion. We support greenfield and brownfield project modeling across the entire power sector value chain, and we can also conduct technical reviews with a regulatory and market focus in M&A processes or provide technical opinions on operations.

The regulatory complexity and price dynamics make financial modeling of energy projects challenging.

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